The temperature re: potential strikes by the US on Iran is still quite high, and there’s a chunk of circumstantial evidence and reports that a strike was actually called off last week. Trump had passed comment that hundreds of executions had been called off, so he was less interested in interfering as a result – this signaled a dramatic reduction …
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I’ve tinkered with Claude Code over the last few weeks and I figured I’d throw the recent How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 25? market at it. I’m not skilled enough statistically to work out what the implied odds are based on recent data, and the opportunity cost of learning all that is quite high (I could be …
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In a few hours, Trump is due to give a speech at the Detroit Economic Club: something he did back in 2024. The structure is the same (scheduled for two hours) and nothing material has occurred over the last 48 hours that would materially impact Trump’s capability to give his standard speech (read: waffle on (read: do the weave)). I’ve …
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I’ve seeded my Polymarket account with $1,000 and now it’s time to get trading. I’ve been playing around with trades for the last week or so, but I want to get serious about predicting and trading, so I’ve started a fresh profile on Polymarket. Let’s talk about my initial positions and why I’m taking them. Maduro Mugshot Market: Maduro mugshot …
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Polymarket is a prediction platform that allows its users to bet on various future events, such as political elections, the weather, financial markets and so on. I’m confident that I cannot compete with experts when it comes to forex, commodities or securities, but I might be able to edge out advantages in more exotic markets – which is what I …
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