I’ve seeded my Polymarket account with $1,000 and now it’s time to get trading.
I’ve been playing around with trades for the last week or so, but I want to get serious about predicting and trading, so I’ve started a fresh profile on Polymarket. Let’s talk about my initial positions and why I’m taking them.
Maduro Mugshot
Market: Maduro mugshot released by…?
Position: No at 95.6 cents (200 shares)
Maduro was recently arrested and booked into a jail: Polymarket has a prediction on whether or not his mugshot will be made public, either through legitimate channels or a leak. I’ve made money on this market over the last week, but I’m buying a position relatively close to expiry (roughly 48 hours before expiry) because I think the odds are still good.
The reasoning is quite simple: criminal federal cases in the United States are under the authority of the DOJ. If you want mugshots, an FAQ on Justice.gov states that:
Department of Justice policy prohibits the release of mug shots for all defendants charged with federal crimes. An exception to this rule is when a defendant is a fugitive and the release of their photo would serve a legitimate law enforcement function.
I went looking for mugshots from previous high profile cases that were somewhat similar to this one: I couldn’t find any that were specifically released by the DOJ. In fact, the only real exception I could find was related to the Turtle Island Liberation Front communist gang.
This was really rather recent, but the images first appeared in a press conference about the bust, and it may have been for the purposes of furthering the investigation. Since the DOJ isn’t planning to hold a presser about Maduro in the next two days, I think this is a safe bet. Trump could defy the DOJ’s policy and publish it via Truth Social on a whim, but I think the chances of that happening are low (at least, lower than 4%).
Khamenei Gets Fired or Fired Upon
Market: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Position: No at 88 cents (125 shares)
Recency bias is a real thing (despite Chrome insisting ‘recency’ isn’t a word and that I actually mean ‘regency’) and I think people are factoring in Maduro’s ousting when they shouldn’t be. The 31st of January is over 3 weeks away, and while a 13.6% ROI ain’t half bad for a traditional investment, I do value liquidity, so I may close this position out early if required.
The so-called supreme leader has been in power since 1989 – that’s a long time. We’re talking over 400 months in total here, so I don’t think adding another one to the tally is all that unlikely.
I do balance that against the Thanksgiving turkey parable, and I do appreciate that he’s old, so I guess the question to ask is this: what odds would I have to be given to take the opposite side of the bet? Greater than 99 cents on the dollar, for sure.
Unrest within the citizenry is genuine, but hardly uncommon. Wikipedia has a disambiguation page when you go looking for ‘Iran Protests’: are you looking for the 1993, 2003, 2009, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2025 or 2026 protests?
Some argue that the protests really are different this time around, but I found articles from 2018 and 2022 claiming that protests during those periods were also very different from previous iterations. Unless there are some major developments in large Iranian cities and mass causalities, I’m sticking to Khamenei remaining in power until Valentine’s day at the earliest.
Logan Paul’s Pokemon Auction
Market: Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price
Position: >$10m at 42 cents (306 shares)
There’s over a month until this card’s auction finishes and over the first few days, action has been hot. I doubt others will pay as much attention as I will to the rate of new bids, and I think as the number goes up, so will people’s desire to gamble on a value not yet reached. I don’t intend to hold this position until resolution, and every day I’ll reassess the situation.
Logan Paul has a history of shady activities, so I wouldn’t put it past him to try and motivate people financially to nudge up the bids regularly. I also think collectors like collectables and it’s not an unrealistic price target for someone to want to pay for such a rare item with a story attached to it.
My risk appetite for this particular market is quite high, since I’m willing to reassess daily and liquidity is reasonable. Unlike other markets where an instant zeroing is possible, I feel more comfortable with this type of a spot compared to other markets.
Final Thoughts
This does it for my initial positions. I’m not sure I’ll be able to cover every position I take, but we’ll see how the blog evolves and how I feel like doing things. These wagers represent less than half of my capital: I want to have some in the war chest just in case something happens.
