In a few hours, Trump is due to give a speech at the Detroit Economic Club: something he did back in 2024. The structure is the same (scheduled for two hours) and nothing material has occurred over the last 48 hours that would materially impact Trump’s capability to give his standard speech (read: waffle on (read: do the weave)).
I’ve been messing around with Claude Code recently (it’s fantastic) and I decided to get it to give me a word count analysis on topics mentioned back then compared to the words we’re looking for in today’s market.
What will Trump say at the Detroit Economic Club on Tuesday?
Recency matters a lot to speeches in general, but especially Trump: that’s why I’m not going to lean too much on what was said last year in isolation, but combine it with what has been in the news over the last few months.
| Term | Oct 2024 | Threshold | Hit? | 2026 YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Million/Billion/Trillion | 26 | 20+ | Yes | 87¢ |
| Job/Jobs | 38 | 15+ | Yes | 87¢ |
| China | 50 | 10+ | Yes | 62¢ |
| Biden/Obama | 15 | 9+ | Yes | 68¢ |
| Hell | 13 | 7+ | Yes | 52¢ |
| Oil/Gas/Gasoline | 19 | 5+ | Yes | 87¢ |
| Electric/Nuclear | 28 | 3+ | Yes | 72¢ |
| Scam/Fraud | 1 | 2+ | No | 64¢ |
| Ford/GM | 2 | Any | Yes | 79¢ |
| Drill Baby Drill | 1 | Any | Yes | 58¢ |
| NAFTA | 4 | Any | Yes | 60¢ |
| Nobel | 4 | Any | Yes | 34¢ |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 0 | Any | No | 19¢ |
| Greenland | 0 | Any | No | 58¢ |
| ICE | 0 | Any | No | 59¢ |
| Somalia | 0 | Any | No | 42¢ |
| Maduro/Dictator | 0 | Any | No | 64¢ |
| Midterm | 0 | Any | No | 28¢ |
There are a few obvious examples here of recency mattering: Maduro at 64 cents would’ve been pretty extreme in 2024, but given what happened at the start of the year, the number seems more reasonable (however, not a market I’m interested in). Greenland at 58 cents also makes sense, but again, not for me.
China hasn’t been a talking point too much lately, but a threshold of 10 seems more than fair – this is actually my favorite position. Trump will almost certainly mention tariffs and go on from there about China paying a bunch, as well as a good chance of him pivoting toward cars and the EV market. This isn’t a slam dunk, but China at 62 cents right now – that’s positive EV.
If you want something that’s almost certain, Oil/Gas/Gasoline at 87 cents is unbeatable. Short of Trump being incapacitated in some way, this is free money. I’m not a financial advisor, but this is financial advice: put your life savings on the line here and thank me later. Just a few days ago, Trump held a meeting with oil bigwigs and promised $100 billion of investment: he’s going to talk about this, as well as the relatively low cost of fuel right now. I don’t think I’d even take the opposite position at 98 cents.
I also really like the price on Nobel at 34 cents: the 4 hits back in 2024 were complaining about Obama and in particular, how he didn’t deserve getting the prize, although Trump obviously does. Just a few days ago, the Nobel Institute said that María Corina Machado cannot share her award with Trump – they’re meeting in two days, and I think there’s a very good chance he mentions this fact.
What don’t I like? Scam/Fraud at 64 cents isn’t a position I’d take. Maybe closer to 40 cents. If he doesn’t mention Minnesota and the issues going on there, people holding this position might be in trouble. You can also chuck in ICE and Somalia, which are in the same category of side-topics that may get mentioned, but way more of a dice roll.
So yeah, these are my three picks for this market:
Oil/Gas/Gasoline at 87 cents
China at 62 cents
Nobel at 34 cents
I’d take the opposite positions at 0.5 cents, 20 cents and 55 cents respectively.
