Trades

A Short/Long Play on Iranian Strikes

The temperature re: potential strikes by the US on Iran is still quite high, and there’s a chunk of circumstantial evidence and reports that a strike was actually called off last week. Trump had passed comment that hundreds of executions had been called off, so he was less interested in interfering as a result – this signaled a dramatic reduction …

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My Picks for Trump’s Speech at Detroit Economic Club

In a few hours, Trump is due to give a speech at the Detroit Economic Club: something he did back in 2024. The structure is the same (scheduled for two hours) and nothing material has occurred over the last 48 hours that would materially impact Trump’s capability to give his standard speech (read: waffle on (read: do the weave)). I’ve …

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Initial Trades and Thoughts

I’ve seeded my Polymarket account with $1,000 and now it’s time to get trading. I’ve been playing around with trades for the last week or so, but I want to get serious about predicting and trading, so I’ve started a fresh profile on Polymarket. Let’s talk about my initial positions and why I’m taking them. Maduro Mugshot Market: Maduro mugshot …

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